Hope for the best from Copenhagen

The climate change summit at Copenhagen, COP15, on December 7, 2009, is the biggest meeting of global leaders after the last meeting at Rio de Janeiro in Brazil in 1992 where the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the global policy guidelines on climate change was adopted.

About 100 leaders of from 192 nations and about 1500 delegates will deliberate at Copenhagen on how to tackle the climate change issues. On December 18, the last day of the conference, the summit is expected to announce an agreement, possibly, to reduce carbon emissions by 25-40 per cent relative to 1990 levels and scaling up to 80 per cent cuts by 2050. With this, the summit seeks to ensure that the global temperatures do not rise more than two degrees Celsius by 2050.

The Danish government’s proposal to replace the Kyoto protocol that expires in 2012 with a new protocol found acceptance from the US, Europe and Australia. India and China are of the view that they agree to the proposals, provided no mandatory emission cuts are imposed on developing countries, no mandatory peaking years for emissions are prescribed, and clear financial commitments are made by rich countries for the developing world to change to clean technologies.

Though USA, India and China were reluctant to announce any commitments initially, the United States has announced to cut emissions by 17 percent, China by 40-45 percent and India by 20-25 per on their 2005 levels by 2020. Europe has announced 20-30 per cent reduction on 1990 levels by 2020. Brazil announced a cut of its carbon emissions by 36-38 per cent of the projected levels by 2020. Japan would be reducing carbon emissions by 15-20 per cent on 1990 levels and Indonesia has announced a reduction of 26 per cent by reducing deforestation by 2020. South Africa too will be making reductions, it is reported, possibly, if financial support is made available.

As a financial support for the developing countries, the US committed to provide US$10 billion every year to fight climate change after 2012, while European Union promised US$100 billion every year.

According to UNFCCC Executive Secretary and the chief negotiator of the UN on climate change Yvo De Boer, who has been lobbying with the world leaders for a couple of years to arrive at a pragmatic consensus, the possibility of an agreement has emerged brighter. Rich countries should reduce emissions, developing countries should limit the growth of emissions, developing countries should be helped to fight climate change and funds must be made available for climate mitigation and adaptation.

As per reports, a petition signed by 10 million signatories calling for a fair, ambitious and binding action at Copenhagen would be delivered to the UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo De Boer on Monday. There are reports of demonstrations by climate change activists in London, and other cities of UK and Europe. There will be demonstrations by activists in Copenhagen and other places worldwide on December 12, 2009 to draw attention to the urgent need for cutting carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases.

Negotiations at different levels of governments and participating delegates and hard bargaining are expected in the coming days before the summit comes to a final decision on climate change on December 18, the last day of the conference. The figures and commitments as mentioned above may change by then, hopefully for the better, and more countries may be committing to positive measures to reduce emissions. Let us hope, the world leaders come to a more realistic understanding of the enormous threats climate change, melting glaciers, rising temperatures and sea levels pose to human existence, and they take more effective measures before it is too late.